Back to the explainer

Provenance manifest: US-Iran war and Hormuz negotiations

Output: index.html in this folder (web version of this manifest: manifest.html). Storyline 2 of storylines-data/trump-administration.json.

Built by outputs/explainer-kit/build.py, which checks every quote and figure below against the fetched article text.

Every piece of text on the page is listed in the order it appears. Headings, labels and instructions are marked as such: they make no claim beyond facts sourced elsewhere on the page.

Two parts of the page are generated straight from the Storylines data and are not listed entry by entry: the chain of five key stories in the header and the Read more list. Both reproduce each article's headline, byline and publication date exactly as the Guardian published them. The line under the title counts the text articles in the Storyline and gives the span of their publication dates.

Header

1The US has been at war with Iran since February.

2Now Iran is offering to reopen a vital oil route within days, on terms that would require difficult concessions from Donald Trump.

In short

3In short

4The US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran in February.

5Since early in the war Iran has had a stranglehold on energy shipping through the strait of Hormuz,

6and reopening it is expected to relieve pressure on global energy markets.

7The war is hugely unpopular in the US, the Guardian reports.

8Congress’s budget office puts the cost at $38bn or more, and the House of Representatives has voted three times to end it.

9During the UN general assembly in New York, Iran offered to reopen the strait within days if the US makes big concessions, including an end to the fighting in Lebanon. Iran is waiting for Trump’s answer.

The basics

10The basics

11What is the strait of Hormuz?

12A key waterway for transporting oil.

13Oman lies on its south side.

14The latest published figures suggest fewer than five identifiable tankers a day are getting through, though US navy estimates are much higher.

15What was the June deal?

16On 17 June the US and Iran agreed a memorandum of understanding.

17Trump signed it.

18Its implementation fell apart after each side accused the other of breaking it by trying to take control of the strait, though Iran’s president says it remains the starting point.

19How is the US squeezing Iran?

20Through sanctions and a naval blockade that makes it nearly impossible for Iran to export oil, depriving it of badly needed foreign currency.

What happened, in order

21What happened, in order

22The US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran.

23February

24The war begins

25The US and Iran agreed a memorandum of understanding on 17 June; its implementation later fell apart.

26In June and July the House passed resolutions to end US action in Iran.

27June–July

28A deal, and votes to end the war

29A Congressional Budget Office report put the cost of the war at $38bn or more, and estimated it would grow by $3bn for every month it continues, depending on its intensity. Defending against Iranian missiles and drones has used up so many interceptor missiles that rebuilding the stockpile “would probably take at least five years, even if production was increased”, the CBO said.

30A few hours after the report, the House voted 220 to 204 to end the war, its third such vote.

31In a White House statement responding to reports of shortages, Trump said the US had “far more munitions than anyone in the world”.

32None of the House resolutions has reached the president, who would almost certainly veto them.

33Earlier, the Senate also passed one, on its 10th attempt, but Republican senators reversed course the next day after Trump berated them.

34The Pentagon’s own review of the war, released the day before, did not address its internal investigation into a strike on a school in Minab on the war’s first day, which killed 156 people, including 120 children.

35Tuesday 15 Sept

36The bill arrives

37In a speech to the UN general assembly, Trump said: “I call on all nations to help to enforce the complete economic isolation of Iran.” He said he had a “big decision” to make: a deal, or “do I annihilate the Islamic republic and do it quickly”.

38He said the midterm elections would not affect his decisions: “The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

39Tuesday 22 Sept

40Trump at the UN

41Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for three hours at the UN headquarters, with Qatar mediating. Trump said the talks had been very productive, and the price of Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks.

42Iran denied it had dropped its conditions. Its foreign ministry said the aim was to convey demands including “the end of the war in all its dimensions”.

43Reported 23 Sept

44Talks in a UN room

45Iran said it had told Trump it would reopen the strait and start nuclear talks within a week if the US met its conditions. “We have introduced a plan to the US through the mediators,” Araghchi said.

46Saudi Arabia had been expected to endorse the new shipping route the week before but pulled back, partly out of anger at attacks on it by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.

47Brent crude was trading at about $107 a barrel,

48against $64 before the fighting.

49Thursday 24 Sept

50Iran’s offer

Diagram: Iran’s seven-day timetable

51Days 1 to 5

52The US acts

53Up to the US

54Lift the naval blockade on Iran’s oil ports

55Restore the waiver that lifted sanctions on Iran’s oil exports

56End the war on all fronts

57Allow the release of some of Iran’s frozen assets

58Patrick Wintour writes that the hardest step for Trump is probably ordering Benjamin Netanyahu to end Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

59Iranian diplomats say a deal would be feasible if Trump could rein in Netanyahu in Lebanon.

60The catch

61Day 6

62The strait reopens

63Up to Iran

64Iran reopens the strait of Hormuz

65Ships use a new route designated by Oman and Iran

66The new route runs mainly through Iranian waters. Wintour writes that the strait would reopen largely on Iran’s terms.

67Saudi Arabia is concerned that the route deal is between Iran and Oman only, without the other Gulf states as joint signatories.

68The catch

69Day 7

70Nuclear talks begin

71Both sides

72Talks start on the future of Iran’s civil nuclear programme

73Including a protocol to let UN nuclear inspectors back in to Iran’s damaged sites and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium

74Under the June agreement, these talks would not have started for 60 days.

75The catch

76Days 1 to 7

77When would nuclear talks begin?

78June agreement

79Day 60

80Iran’s new offer

81Day 7

82Iran’s seven-day timetable

83Iran’s offer, as reported by the Guardian from New York on 25 September.

84A Guardian headline the day before described it as opening the strait “in six days”:

85the strait reopens on day six and nuclear talks follow on day seven.

86Select a stage to see what it involves.

Who’s who, and where they stand

87Who’s who, and where they stand

88Says he must choose between a deal and whether to “annihilate the Islamic republic”, and that the only thing on his mind is that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon”.

89Donald Trump

90US president

91Says Iran’s conditions are “nothing new”. He doubts Witkoff can deliver: twice, he said, Witkoff called their talks “productive and good”, only for the US to bomb Iran the next day.

92Abbas Araghchi

93Iran’s foreign minister

94Admits Iranians want the war to end, but says the public has withstood sanctions for 45 years.

95Masoud Pezeshkian

96Iran’s president

97A faction in Iran argues that Tehran should escalate the conflict while the US president is vulnerable, rather than let the deadlock drift. Praising Pezeshkian’s UN speech, the Revolutionary Guards commander, Ahmad Vahidi, said: “We are not afraid of war.”

98Other voices in Iran

99Inside the system

100Democrat Seth Moulton: “Remember when Donald Trump said that this war would last just a few weeks?” Republican Brian Mast says Trump is against “forever wars, and that is what he is ending”, meaning decades of hostilities from Iran.

101Congress

102Divided

103Around the table

104Israel

105Iranian officials fear Israel will pull Trump away from the deal. Israel may object to giving Iran such clear control over the shipping route.

106Oman

107Has agreed the new route with Iran, Iran says.

108Saudi Arabia

109Concerned that the route deal leaves out the other Gulf states as joint signatories.

110China

111Fully supports the proposal, according to Araghchi.

112UK

113Its foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, met Araghchi in New York, the first meeting between UK and Iranian ministers for a year. He said the UK wanted a diplomatic solution and freedom of navigation in the strait.

Opinion: is it a war?

114Is it even a war?

115Opinion

116Arwa Mahdawi, Guardian columnist

117Mahdawi argues that the administration keeps insisting this is not a war, and that this matters because only Congress can declare one. She quotes JD Vance, the vice-president: “I wouldn’t call it a war.” And she quotes Trump at a fundraising dinner in March: “They don’t like the word ‘war’ because you’re supposed to get approval.”

118“What we call this ‘military conflict’ isn’t just semantics, it matters greatly.”

119This is the only opinion piece in the Storyline.

What happens next

120What happens next

121Araghchi said he would stay in New York over the weekend to wait for an American answer, but was not in a hurry.

122The US midterm elections are in November, and the White House is under pressure to bring down oil prices before then.

123For Patrick Wintour, the real question for Trump is whether he is prepared to go back to war after the midterms, and if not, whether he believes the US can squeeze Iran’s economy until its leadership gives in.

Checks