US-Iran war and Hormuz negotiations

In short

1. The US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran in February. Since early in the war Iran has had a stranglehold on energy shipping through the strait of Hormuz,2 and reopening it is expected to relieve pressure on global energy markets.5
2. The war is hugely unpopular in the US, the Guardian reports.3 Congress’s budget office puts the cost at $38bn or more, and the House of Representatives has voted three times to end it.1
3. During the UN general assembly in New York, Iran offered to reopen the strait within days if the US makes big concessions, including an end to the fighting in Lebanon. Iran is waiting for Trump’s answer.4

The basics

What happened, in order

1. February

   The war begins

   The US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran.2

2. June–July

   A deal, and votes to end the war

   The US and Iran agreed a memorandum of understanding on 17 June; its implementation later fell apart.3 In June and July the House passed resolutions to end US action in Iran.1

3. Tuesday15 Sept

   The bill arrives

   A Congressional Budget Office report put the cost of the war at $38bn or more, and estimated it would grow by $3bn for every month it continues, depending on its intensity. Defending against Iranian missiles and drones has used up so many interceptor missiles that rebuilding the stockpile “would probably take at least five years, even if production was increased”, the CBO said. A few hours after the report, the House voted 220 to 204 to end the war, its third such vote. In a White House statement responding to reports of shortages, Trump said the US had “far more munitions than anyone in the world”.1

   None of the House resolutions has reached the president, who would almost certainly veto them. Earlier, the Senate also passed one, on its 10th attempt, but Republican senators reversed course the next day after Trump berated them.1

   The Pentagon’s own review of the war, released the day before, did not address its internal investigation into a strike on a school in Minab on the war’s first day, which killed 156 people, including 120 children.1

4. Tuesday22 Sept

   Trump at the UN

   In a speech to the UN general assembly, Trump said: “I call on all nations to help to enforce the complete economic isolation of Iran.” He said he had a “big decision” to make: a deal, or “do I annihilate the Islamic republic and do it quickly”. He said the midterm elections would not affect his decisions: “The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”2

5. Reported23 Sept

   Talks in a UN room

   Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for three hours at the UN headquarters, with Qatar mediating. Trump said the talks had been very productive, and the price of Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks. Iran denied it had dropped its conditions. Its foreign ministry said the aim was to convey demands including “the end of the war in all its dimensions”.3

6. Thursday24 Sept

   Iran’s offer

   Iran said it had told Trump it would reopen the strait and start nuclear talks within a week if the US met its conditions. “We have introduced a plan to the US through the mediators,” Araghchi said. Saudi Arabia had been expected to endorse the new shipping route the week before but pulled back, partly out of anger at attacks on it by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. Brent crude was trading at about $107 a barrel,4 against $64 before the fighting.1

Who’s who, and where they stand

• Donald Trump

  US president

  Says he must choose between a deal and whether to “annihilate the Islamic republic”, and that the only thing on his mind is that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon”.2

• Abbas Araghchi

  Iran’s foreign minister

  Says Iran’s conditions are “nothing new”. He doubts Witkoff can deliver: twice, he said, Witkoff called their talks “productive and good”, only for the US to bomb Iran the next day.5

• Masoud Pezeshkian

  Iran’s president

  Admits Iranians want the war to end, but says the public has withstood sanctions for 45 years.5

• Other voices in Iran

  Inside the system

  A faction in Iran argues that Tehran should escalate the conflict while the US president is vulnerable, rather than let the deadlock drift. Praising Pezeshkian’s UN speech, the Revolutionary Guards commander, Ahmad Vahidi, said: “We are not afraid of war.”4

• Congress

  Divided

  Democrat Seth Moulton: “Remember when Donald Trump said that this war would last just a few weeks?” Republican Brian Mast says Trump is against “forever wars, and that is what he is ending”, meaning decades of hostilities from Iran.1

Around the table

• IsraelIranian officials fear Israel will pull Trump away from the deal. Israel may object to giving Iran such clear control over the shipping route.4
• OmanHas agreed the new route with Iran, Iran says.4
• Saudi ArabiaConcerned that the route deal leaves out the other Gulf states as joint signatories.5
• ChinaFully supports the proposal, according to Araghchi.4
• UKIts foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, met Araghchi in New York, the first meeting between UK and Iranian ministers for a year. He said the UK wanted a diplomatic solution and freedom of navigation in the strait.4

Is it even a war?

This is the only opinion piece in the Storyline.

What happens next

Araghchi said he would stay in New York over the weekend to wait for an American answer, but was not in a hurry.4 The US midterm elections are in November, and the White House is under pressure to bring down oil prices before then.3 For Patrick Wintour, the real question for Trump is whether he is prepared to go back to war after the midterms, and if not, whether he believes the US can squeeze Iran’s economy until its leadership gives in.5